II. Analysis of the development trend of the cotton industry in 2011 In consideration of various domestic and foreign factors, it is predicted that the CCPPI in 2011/2012 will drop by 50 points in high position, with a large margin. The annual CCPPI will run between 250 and 310 to analyze the economic direction of the cotton industry. Presented four trends.
1. Cotton consumption remains flat or declining. After China's textile raw cotton consumption increased from 2007 to 10 million tons, it has a net increase of 1.1 million tons per year. Affected by the shortage of resources and high prices, it is predicted that the output of cotton spinning in 2011 will be flat or slightly lower. Affected by the reduction of global available import resources, and international prices higher than domestic, it is expected that imports will be flat or declining. Australia suffered floods and reduced exports.
2. The cotton planting area showed a mild expansion. Driven by high prices, it is expected that the cotton planting area will show a moderate growth. However, the increase in area does not exceed the traditional “high-price up†model and will not exceed two percentage points. The analysis pointed out that after the price of cotton rose to a reasonable price, the competition of grain, cotton, and crops has shifted from parity to technology and services. Only after solving the “four-fee†problem of cotton-making, labor, time-consuming and costly, can cotton production enter a stable development track. To solve this problem, it is urgent to simplify the management of cultivation and mechanization management, and to provide socialized and organized services. The socialization can guarantee that the “threeizations†determine the success or failure of cotton. The current demand for mechanized transplanting and harvesting of cotton in the Mainland is extremely urgent.
3. The high cotton price showed a downward trend. Although the factors that analyze the trend of cotton prices this year are very complicated, there are some trends toward:
The first is the macroeconomic policy orientation. This year, the country has implemented "proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies". It has raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5% in February and February and raised the one-year deposits of financial institutions by 0.25 in February. Percentage points, the purpose of managing inflation expectations and preventing inflation from worsening. It is expected that measures will be taken to significantly reduce liquidity in the future, and the momentum of rising prices will be curbed in the second half of the year, and prices will trend downwards throughout the year.
Second, "stabilizing prices" is the top priority for the country's economic operation this year. When the Prime Minister paid a visit to the Spring Festival on February 1 and during a visit to Shandong on February 2, he stressed that it is necessary to resolutely prevent price increases from rising too fast, and to maintain stability in the overall price level by developing production, ensuring supply, invigorating circulation, and strengthening supervision.
The third is the international import inflation factor. The advanced economies entered the inflation period and prices for oil, edible oil and food generally rose. Global inflation will boost domestic inflation. Fourth, the uncertainty of the global cotton production and the unpredictability of the total output increase.
In summary, the key point is to look at the domestic, if tightening monetary policy, adjust the inflation adjustment measures in place, CPI control at 4% up and down, the price will be a rational return, the possibility of new cotton prices down. According to the CC Index average price of 26,809 yuan/t in October-December 2010, it is estimated that the fall of 10% is 24128 yuan/t and 5% is 25469 yuan/t, which means the expected new cotton price will be between 24,000 yuan and 26,000 yuan/tonne. between. Compared with January and February of this year, the average price of 27,553 to 29,603 yuan/t fell by 3,000 to 4,000 yuan/t, a decrease of 10%.
4. Cotton resources have entered an extremely short period, and the scale of cotton spinning industry should shrink. Due to the shortage of raw cotton resources, high cotton prices, credit contraction and rising costs, especially the severe shortage of resources, the battle for resources has long begun and the competition has become fiercer. With the credit contraction, a batch of cotton spinning enterprises are expected to stop production this year. Even closed down, so the cotton spinning output 27,170,000 t may be a historical peak, this year will be flat or declining, had to end 10 consecutive years of rapid growth of the "golden period." Forced the cotton spinning enterprises to deepen reforms, speed up adjustments, and increase value-added and brand effects.
The investment in cotton spinning spindles should be cautious and the scale should shrink. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 1, the national textile industry invested 223 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of up to 26.4%, of which more than 8 million spindles of cotton spinning spindles exceeded the 120 million spindles, which is an extremely large scale. With the shortage of domestic resources, the international market can continue to reduce the procurement of resources (Table 2), cotton spinning scale shrinks rather than expand.
The transfer process of the cotton textile industry has accelerated. Last year, the transfer of investment from central Henan, Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui increased significantly, while the capacity of transfer of Chongqing and Sichuan in the west increased. Xinjiang has rapidly expanded and added 1.5 million spindles of cotton spinning spindles. From the perspective of sustainable industrial development, the pace of transfer should also be slowed down, and lessons from the “moving eastwards and westwards†in the 1990s should be learned.
To steadily develop production and improve the cotton supply capacity, it is necessary to meet the new demand for cotton competition from parity to technology and services. To adhere to the "three grasps":
On the one hand, we must strengthen science and technology to build cotton and socialize services to enhance our core competitiveness. At present and in the future, major breakthroughs will be made in lightening cultivation, mechanization management, and socialization services. Breakthroughs will be made in key technologies “one after the other,†and “before†mechanized transplanting to solve the problem of 40% cotton seedling transplanting in the field. "Mechanized harvesting, to solve the problem of 95% of the country's collection fees, the Xinjiang Corps opened up a good head, last year, the area of ​​more than 250 million mu of machine mining, and strive to "second five" universal, but the Yangtze River, the Yellow River still have problems It is recommended that the country list cotton "machine-plant-machine-picking" as a major item, organize scientific research to focus on research breakthroughs, and effectively solve the "four fees" problem.
Second-hand policy support, the introduction of the lowest price, improve the ability to mobilize the policy.
Three hands grasp reserves and launches to enhance the market's ability to absorb and control.
In addition, cotton spinning companies need to survive and develop and enhance their competitiveness. In the future, resources are the first factor. To stabilize cotton supply, cotton spinning enterprises must extend to the “first workshop†and actively participate in the construction of cotton production bases, shifting capital input from factory equipment. Cotton fields and agriculture strive to obtain a relatively stable supply of resources.
1. Cotton consumption remains flat or declining. After China's textile raw cotton consumption increased from 2007 to 10 million tons, it has a net increase of 1.1 million tons per year. Affected by the shortage of resources and high prices, it is predicted that the output of cotton spinning in 2011 will be flat or slightly lower. Affected by the reduction of global available import resources, and international prices higher than domestic, it is expected that imports will be flat or declining. Australia suffered floods and reduced exports.
2. The cotton planting area showed a mild expansion. Driven by high prices, it is expected that the cotton planting area will show a moderate growth. However, the increase in area does not exceed the traditional “high-price up†model and will not exceed two percentage points. The analysis pointed out that after the price of cotton rose to a reasonable price, the competition of grain, cotton, and crops has shifted from parity to technology and services. Only after solving the “four-fee†problem of cotton-making, labor, time-consuming and costly, can cotton production enter a stable development track. To solve this problem, it is urgent to simplify the management of cultivation and mechanization management, and to provide socialized and organized services. The socialization can guarantee that the “threeizations†determine the success or failure of cotton. The current demand for mechanized transplanting and harvesting of cotton in the Mainland is extremely urgent.
3. The high cotton price showed a downward trend. Although the factors that analyze the trend of cotton prices this year are very complicated, there are some trends toward:
The first is the macroeconomic policy orientation. This year, the country has implemented "proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies". It has raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5% in February and February and raised the one-year deposits of financial institutions by 0.25 in February. Percentage points, the purpose of managing inflation expectations and preventing inflation from worsening. It is expected that measures will be taken to significantly reduce liquidity in the future, and the momentum of rising prices will be curbed in the second half of the year, and prices will trend downwards throughout the year.
Second, "stabilizing prices" is the top priority for the country's economic operation this year. When the Prime Minister paid a visit to the Spring Festival on February 1 and during a visit to Shandong on February 2, he stressed that it is necessary to resolutely prevent price increases from rising too fast, and to maintain stability in the overall price level by developing production, ensuring supply, invigorating circulation, and strengthening supervision.
The third is the international import inflation factor. The advanced economies entered the inflation period and prices for oil, edible oil and food generally rose. Global inflation will boost domestic inflation. Fourth, the uncertainty of the global cotton production and the unpredictability of the total output increase.
In summary, the key point is to look at the domestic, if tightening monetary policy, adjust the inflation adjustment measures in place, CPI control at 4% up and down, the price will be a rational return, the possibility of new cotton prices down. According to the CC Index average price of 26,809 yuan/t in October-December 2010, it is estimated that the fall of 10% is 24128 yuan/t and 5% is 25469 yuan/t, which means the expected new cotton price will be between 24,000 yuan and 26,000 yuan/tonne. between. Compared with January and February of this year, the average price of 27,553 to 29,603 yuan/t fell by 3,000 to 4,000 yuan/t, a decrease of 10%.
4. Cotton resources have entered an extremely short period, and the scale of cotton spinning industry should shrink. Due to the shortage of raw cotton resources, high cotton prices, credit contraction and rising costs, especially the severe shortage of resources, the battle for resources has long begun and the competition has become fiercer. With the credit contraction, a batch of cotton spinning enterprises are expected to stop production this year. Even closed down, so the cotton spinning output 27,170,000 t may be a historical peak, this year will be flat or declining, had to end 10 consecutive years of rapid growth of the "golden period." Forced the cotton spinning enterprises to deepen reforms, speed up adjustments, and increase value-added and brand effects.
The investment in cotton spinning spindles should be cautious and the scale should shrink. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 1, the national textile industry invested 223 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of up to 26.4%, of which more than 8 million spindles of cotton spinning spindles exceeded the 120 million spindles, which is an extremely large scale. With the shortage of domestic resources, the international market can continue to reduce the procurement of resources (Table 2), cotton spinning scale shrinks rather than expand.
The transfer process of the cotton textile industry has accelerated. Last year, the transfer of investment from central Henan, Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui increased significantly, while the capacity of transfer of Chongqing and Sichuan in the west increased. Xinjiang has rapidly expanded and added 1.5 million spindles of cotton spinning spindles. From the perspective of sustainable industrial development, the pace of transfer should also be slowed down, and lessons from the “moving eastwards and westwards†in the 1990s should be learned.
To steadily develop production and improve the cotton supply capacity, it is necessary to meet the new demand for cotton competition from parity to technology and services. To adhere to the "three grasps":
On the one hand, we must strengthen science and technology to build cotton and socialize services to enhance our core competitiveness. At present and in the future, major breakthroughs will be made in lightening cultivation, mechanization management, and socialization services. Breakthroughs will be made in key technologies “one after the other,†and “before†mechanized transplanting to solve the problem of 40% cotton seedling transplanting in the field. "Mechanized harvesting, to solve the problem of 95% of the country's collection fees, the Xinjiang Corps opened up a good head, last year, the area of ​​more than 250 million mu of machine mining, and strive to "second five" universal, but the Yangtze River, the Yellow River still have problems It is recommended that the country list cotton "machine-plant-machine-picking" as a major item, organize scientific research to focus on research breakthroughs, and effectively solve the "four fees" problem.
Second-hand policy support, the introduction of the lowest price, improve the ability to mobilize the policy.
Three hands grasp reserves and launches to enhance the market's ability to absorb and control.
In addition, cotton spinning companies need to survive and develop and enhance their competitiveness. In the future, resources are the first factor. To stabilize cotton supply, cotton spinning enterprises must extend to the “first workshop†and actively participate in the construction of cotton production bases, shifting capital input from factory equipment. Cotton fields and agriculture strive to obtain a relatively stable supply of resources.
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